In 2025, tourism generated $11.6 trillion, or 9.8% of global GDP. At the A World for Travel (AWFT) forum in Paris, industry professionals and institutions weighed this growth potential against the geopolitical, climatic and technological risks facing the sector.
Considerable economic weight, solid prospects
The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) reminded attendees at the A World for Travel forum in Paris that tourism was worth $11.6 trillion in 2025, the equivalent of 9.8% of global gross domestic product. According to projections cited by Maribel Rodríguez, Executive Vice President for Destinations at the WTTC, activity is expected to grow by 2.5% in 2026 and reach $17.1 trillion by 2036, an increase of about 47% compared with 2025.
Contradictory signals: desire to travel and budget constraints
Speakers stressed a duality: “the desire to travel is reaching new heights,” noted Didier Bréchemier, Global Head of Transport, Travel and Logistics at Roland Berger, but budgets are under pressure. Concerns about the safety of journeys are also directing part of the demand toward closer destinations, while tourists often prefer trips focused on their passions rather than on emblematic sites.
“The desire to travel is reaching new heights.” — Didier Bréchemier, Roland Berger
Inequalities and concentration: tourism does not trickle down
The aggregate figures hide significant disparities. The forum pointed out that France attracts more international tourists than the whole of Africa. In many African regions, connectivity remains a major obstacle: some internal routes require transiting through another country, according to Ekaterina Vasileva of Radisson Hotel Group. Voices such as Ola Wright, Director General of the West Africa Tourism Organization (WATO), are calling for increased regional cooperation to capture more tourism value at the subregional level rather than solely at the national level.
Overtourism and seasonality
The phenomenon of overtourism remains pronounced in several European destinations. A 2023 Statista/Holidu study cited at the forum ranks Dubrovnik first with 36 tourists per inhabitant, ahead of Venice (21). In response to these excesses, speakers urged action on capacity management and seasonality to better distribute visitor flows.
Geopolitical shocks and rising jet fuel prices
The war in the Middle East was identified as an immediate brake: participants said the conflict is expected to reduce the growth of international arrivals by 1 to 2 percentage points compared with initial forecasts from the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UN Tourism). Another tangible effect is the surge in jet fuel prices, which makes long‑haul flights more expensive and affects travelers’ choice of transport mode. Guillaume de Marcillac, cofounder of Pegasus Trains, reminded the audience that trains emit about twenty times less CO2 than planes, but price often remains decisive for travelers.
Climate, biodiversity and sustainable opportunities
The impacts of climate change are already visible and affect both destinations and their populations. In Mauritius, beach erosion is progressing “faster than expected,” acknowledged Clency Roméo, Head of Sustainable Development at Sunlife, highlighting the consequences for the local economy. At the same time, some actors see tourism as a lever for preservation: Daniel Turner, founder of Animondial, recalls that “73% of wild animal populations have declined since 1970,” according to WWF, but believes that well‑designed tourism experiences can contribute to conservation.
Technology: AI is changing uses
Artificial intelligence is rapidly changing consumer behavior. A Booking.com study reported at the forum shows that 69% of Generation Z use AI to plan or during their stay, compared with only 11% of baby boomers. This revolution requires investment and adaptation of offers to meet new uses.
Contrasting tourism balances in Europe
The WTTC highlighted differences between European countries in terms of tourism spending. In 2025, France posted a positive balance of €19.4 billion, with €81.3 billion spent by foreign visitors versus €61.9 billion spent by its residents abroad.
By contrast, Germany and the United Kingdom recorded deficits of €74 billion and €72 billion respectively, reflecting higher spending by their residents abroad. No comparable data were presented for Spain and Italy at the forum.
The AWFT forum thus highlighted a contrasting reality: tourism remains a major economic driver and a source of long‑term growth, but it operates in an uncertain context where price, security, seasonality, climate issues and technological disruptions force a rethink of offers and policies.
Source
- Tourisme l industrie qui pese pres de 10 du pib mondial est elle a l abri des crises (lechotouristique.com)